SPY
US stocks
760.88
-0.4% today
- 1M
- -2%
- 3M
- +1.9%
- 1Y
- +17%
- 5Y
- +83.8%
Does well when growth is rising and profits expand.
Current box
Overheating
An overheating mix: growth is still expanding, inflation pressure is building, and policy is tightening (yields have risen).
Growth risingInflation risingPolicy hiking
An overheating mix: growth is still expanding, inflation pressure is building, and policy is tightening (yields have risen).
US stocks are up +17.0% over twelve months and modestly higher (+1.9%) over three. Long Treasuries are modestly lower (-5.9%) over twelve months — the typical first casualty of a tightening cycle. Gold is up +17.1%; commodities are up +53.3%.
The 10-year yield sits at 4.96%, up 90 bp over twelve months. The 10-year/3-month curve is up 103 bp. A steep curve often appears after cuts, when the Fed has already started to insure against weaker growth.
Closest analogue
2021 reopening boom
2021
Growth ran hot after the reopening. Inflation was already in the pipe. The Fed was still late.
The 2022 hiking cycle. Overheating does not last: either the Fed tightens, or inflation does the tightening for it. Own the inflation sleeves until the growth sleeve rolls over.
Goldilocks
Stocks · long bonds
Overheating
Stocks · commodities · gold
You are here
Slowdown
Long bonds · gold
Stagflation
Gold · commodities · cash
Cycle sleeves
Five assets, one machine
Left side is percent from the first day of this window. 0% is the start. The chips below show where each sleeve sits now. This is how the balanced book is built: 30% US stocks, 40% long Treasuries, 15% intermediate Treasuries, 7.5% gold, 7.5% commodities.
Percent from the start of this window on each chip. Hover a date for that day’s percent and the actual price. As of Sep 15, 2026, 3:52 AM UTC.
TLT
Long-term Treasuries
80.93
+0.1% today
- 1M
- -1%
- 3M
- -5.6%
- 1Y
- -5.9%
- 5Y
- -35.3%
The shock absorber when growth falls and rates are cut.
IEF
Intermediate Treasuries
90.93
-0.1% today
- 1M
- -1.9%
- 3M
- -2.6%
- 1Y
- -2.5%
- 5Y
- -9.2%
Smoother duration. Less drama than the long bond when the Fed moves.
GLD
Gold
392.84
-1.5% today
- 1M
- -2.2%
- 3M
- +1.5%
- 1Y
- +17.1%
- 5Y
- +139.9%
Hedge for falling real rates, currency debasement, and regime stress.
DBC
Commodities
33.15
0% today
- 1M
- +10.5%
- 3M
- +20%
- 1Y
- +53.3%
- 5Y
- +95.2%
Does well when inflation surprises to the upside.
Fed & the curve
Rates are the weather vane
The machine treats the Fed as a lagging amplifier of the credit cycle. Watch the level, the twelve-month change, and the curve — not the press conference.
3-month bill
Policy proxy
3.94%
10-year
The hurdle rate
4.96%
30-year
Long duration
5.33%
10Y change, 1Y
Tightening or easing in the market
+90 bp
10Y − 3M
Curve. Negative has preceded slowdowns
+103 bp
VIX
Equity fear
17.1
What the past did
Playbook for this box
When the Fed hikes — or the market prices hikes, which is what the 10-year at 4.96% is doing — the first thing that breaks is duration. Long Treasuries fall as yields rise. Intermediate Treasuries hurt less. Cash becomes a real alternative.
If growth stays firm (1994, 2017), equities can grind through the hikes. The analogue is a bond bear, not an equity bear. Gold usually struggles while real rates are rising.
Hiking into inflation is Volcker logic: inflict duration pain to restore the currency. Commodities may still lead until the demand destruction shows up.
Typically helped
- US stocks
- Commodities
- Gold
Typically hurt
- Long-term Treasuries
- Cash
The closest print in the history book is 2021 reopening boom (2021). Growth ran hot after the reopening. Inflation was already in the pipe. The Fed was still late.
The 2022 hiking cycle. Overheating does not last: either the Fed tightens, or inflation does the tightening for it. Own the inflation sleeves until the growth sleeve rolls over.
After hiking cycles, the past says the first durable turn is in bonds, not stocks. Equities often bottom after the last hike, not before.
Balanced book
Risk parity, not 60/40
Book 1Y +7.6% · 5Y +27.3%
US stocks
30.0% weight
+17% sleeve · +5.1% of book
Long-term Treasuries
40.0% weight
-5.9% sleeve · -2.4% of book
Intermediate Treasuries
15.0% weight
-2.5% sleeve · -0.4% of book
Gold
7.5% weight
+17.1% sleeve · +1.3% of book
Commodities
7.5% weight
+53.3% sleeve · +4% of book
House note
Ask the desk to write the regime
A short observation from today’s tape, in the economic-machine voice. On demand — never on a timer.